Foreign Affairs Roundup — Friday October 30, 2009

This Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs:

Iran Rejects Uranium Transfer Deal
SI Analysis:  In a show of shrewd and bizarre diplomacy, Iran says that it was willing to cooperate with the West over its nuclear program but sought to change provisions in a deal reached last week that would have marked a massive detente in the standoff between the international community and Iran over its nuclear program.  Essentially Iran is refusing to transfer its enriched uranium to Russia for its conversion to nuclear fuel without actually saying so.  Iran’s dithering and stalling was expected.  What the international response will be is unknown at this point.  There may be a brief effort to renew the deal, but unless Iran commits quickly and clearly to it strong energy sanctions are likely (if the US and Europe can still convince Russia to go along with them).

Zelaya To Return to Power in Honduras
SI Analysis: In a surprise development ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya will likely return to power in Honduras, after US diplomats reached an agreement with interim President Roberto Micheletti.  Zelaya’s return is dependent on Congressional approval of the deal that also stipulates that the 29 November Presidential elections must take place, the international sanctions against Honduras be lifted and a truth commission be created.

War Reports:

Afghanistan and Pakistan
SI Analysis:  Ahead of runoff elections on 7 November between incumbent Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah, international observers and experts warn of likely widespread fraud and proffer a pessimistic outlook for Afghan governance regardless of the result; the candidates launch reciprocal barbs — with Abdullah at one point even threatening to boycott the polls; and a spate of Taliban attacks across the country aim at keeping people away from the polls. Perhaps surprising to Western pundits though, the Afghan sentiment is reportedly rather optimistic, as most Afghans believe that overall the situation in their country is improving.  Meanwhile, two US helicopters crash resulting in 14 US casualties.  US President Obama will wait on the results of the election to announce the new US strategy in Afghanistan, though two options both with troop increases ranging from 10,000 to 40,000 were subject to a round of war games to project likely results and response by the Taliban and Afghan government conducted by the Pentagon this week.  Elsewhere, there was a flurry of debate over the New York Times story that contends Ahmed Wali Karzai, the President’s brother and known thug and drug lord, is on the CIA payroll.
In Pakistan, US Secretary of State Clinton openly criticized the Pakistani state’s leniency on certain Taliban and Islamist extremists.  She also announced a series of controversial US aid packages to Pakistan.  Just after her arrival a massive car bomb killed over 100 people in Peshawar. Pakistan took great umbrage to the criticism in light of its recent crackdown on militants in South Waziristan and Swat, Taliban factions that are responsible for a series of bloody attacks across Pakistan.  But the tension between Pakistan and the US is really over the presence of Taliban and foreign extremists who take refuge in Pakistan, conducting attacks not in Pakistan but in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

Iraq
SI Analysis:  Following a massive terrorist attack in downtown Baghdad that killed over 155 people and wounded over 700, analysts are warning of the return of radical political Sunni insurgents to Iraq.  This attack is the latest in a series ahead of the elections aimed to intimidate Iraqis and thwart the smooth governance of the Iraqi state.  At best, this is an action by a relatively small and unpopular group of foreign militants whose power is waning.  A recent report on the improved security situation in southern Iraq around Basra supports this hypothesis.  At worst, it would suggest the re-emergence of both nationalistic and foreign extremists opposed to the Shia-majority Iraqi government.  Meanwhile, a stalemate preventing the passing of an effective electoral law in Kirkuk endures, thus presenting an impediment to January elections taking place.

Under the Radar and Analysis in Brief:

Chinese and American Military Detente
SI Analysis: Chinese General Xu Caihou meets US Defense Secretary Robert Gates in Washington in the first high level military meeting between the two countries in more than three years.  Gates will reportedly reciprocate and travel to Beijing soon.  This is a significant and positive development since US/Chinese military relations have suffered in recent years.  The most notable events have been a series of naval standoffs in the South China Sea, cyberattacks on US governmental and military databases that have been traced back to China and China’s destruction of one its own satellites as a clear demonstration of an effective and asymmetrical military deterrent to the US expansion and development in space.  Moreover, the US has regularly accused China of opacity regarding its military growth and budget and expressed concern regarding its rapid increase in military expenditures.

Low Level Tension Endures in Lebanon
SI Analysis: As PM-elect Saad Hariri struggles, perhaps in vain, to form a coalition government (recent hangups have centered around opposition leader Michel Aoun’s claim in the Telecommunications Ministry), tensions between  Israel and Hezbollah (and Lebanon as a whole by extension) continue to simmer at a low but real intensity.  Following a recent rocket attack from southern Lebanon into Israel, Israel retaliated with rocket fire.  There were no casualties on either side.  Following the skirmish, Lebanese and UN officials diffused four Katyusha rockets in an abandoned house in southern Lebanon, most likely a Hezbollah weapon’s cache.  It is important for the Lebanese government to be able to form a strong and legitimate centralized government in order to decrease the legitimacy of Hezbollah and its militia as an extra-governmental independent actor in southern Lebanon and to more effectively resolve its long-standing conflicts with Israel.

Indian Insurgents Act Out in West Bengal
SI Analysis: A train in the Indian state of West Bengal is hijacked and then released by Maoist Naxalite rebels there, an ongoing low level insurgency group.

Very Fragile Prospects of Peace Talks
SI Analysis: US Middle East Envoy George Mitchell travels to Israel ahead of Secretary of State Clinton, slated to arrive there Saturday and hopefully relaunch the peace process.  Following her visit, she will meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the UAE. Meanwhile, intra-Palestinian tension rises as Hamas instructs Palestinians to boycott next year’s elections called by President Mahmoud Abbas, citing Fatah’s unilateral action on this matter.

You can read this Foreign Affairs Roundup at Simple Intelligence and on the Huffington Post.