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Foreign Affairs Roundup — Friday, February 26, 2010

This Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs:

Goodluck, Nigeria
President Umaru Yar’Adua, Nigeria’s ill ruler, returned home from Saudi Arabia this week.  He had been away for 3 months with no known official contact to the newly appointed and acting president, Goodluck Jonathan.  Jonathan had been sworn in as president 2 weeks ago, and the unexpected return by Yar’Adua has led to many speculations about growing instability in the nation, with a possible power struggle adding to latent Muslim-Christian tensions and a rebellion in the Niger Delta.  On Thursday, the Nigerian parliament enacted a law by near-unanimous vote setting a limit of 2 weeks on the amount of time a president can be absent on grounds of inability to perform the job.  As controversy and questioning swirls, Goodluck Jonathan remains in effective power, according to many governmental officials.

Airing Dirty Laundry: Turkey
Turkey showed off its fragile underbelly to the world this week as a government sweep arrested military leaders over an alleged coup plan from 2003.  Although Ankara acted swiftly to downplay the crisis, the fact stands that none of this is really new for Turkey, which has suffered from series of coups over the years.  The difference here is that the arrests signal a transfer of political power from the elected executive powers from the Army, which has been the ‘guarantor of democracy via coup’ since the Ataturk’s founding of the modern Turkish state. Never before have such senior military officers been arrested.  The event brings to light apparent wide-spread tension between the secular Army and the ruling AKP, whose leaders have past Islamist affiliations.  Questions over Turkey’s stability that left many financiers and political analysts worried.

War Reports:

Afghanistan/Pakistan
A suicide attack in Kabul on Friday targeted Indian and other foreigners and at least 16 were killed.  Also US General McChrystal apologized for the accidental deaths of at least 27 Afghan civilians in a drone attack.  Most agree that, despite the shortcomings of the Afghan Army, the recent campaign in and around Marja has generally gone well.  As fighting abates, analysts speculate that McChrystal wants to expand the surge from Helmand Province into Kandahar Province, the two major Taliban strongholds.  The joint NATO/Afghan effort has been bolstered by Pakistani arrests of key members of the Afghan Taliban in Pakistan.  What’s more promising is that Pakistan has agreed (perhaps with Saudi urging) to transfer these Taliban to Afghanistan, suggesting that Pakistan has indeed adopted a change in policy regarding sanctuary previously offered to Afghan Taliban and al Qaeda.  Less heartening however was President Karzai’s initiative to take control over all election oversight by taking over the appointments to the Election Complaints Committee.  Elsewhere, Pakistan and India met to improve ties for the first time since the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks.  Though no major breakthroughs were reached and both sides did little more than posture, it is a good sign that they are talking.

Iran Elections
Support for a Sunni call for boycott of Iraq elections gained little momentum this week.  With less than nine days away from the 7 March Parliamentary elections, campaigning is in full swing mainly pitting two different styles and platforms of Shia leadership.  Analysts are divided on whether the election will be a milestone of Iraq’s democratic maturity or the catalyst for a return of sectarian divisions and perhaps even fighting.

Analysis in Brief:

Growing Campaign Against Iran
US military and diplomatic leaders are building the case for greater sanctions against Iran and support for a viable military option to be used as a credible threat if Iran still refuses to cooperate with international nuclear arbiters.  After a Middle East tour de force led by US Secretary of State Clinton last week, there is strong evidence that they are making progress.  The sticking points remains China’s veto on the UN Security Council as well Turkey, who is a rotating member this year.  Both Ankara and Beijing remain strong proponents of international mediation and diplomacy and opponents to further sanctions.  Turkey may however be won over with US pressure and China convinced to abstain.  Expect to hear more and more on Iran in the weeks to come.  Elsewhere, Iran arrested Jundallah leader Abdolmalek Rigi, a major Sunni Iranian dissident.  Iran claimed that Rigi had ties to the CIA.  The US dismissed this.

Bangladeshi Instability
Despite stabilizing progress in this nation in recent years, Bangladesh saw a rash of instability this week, mostly related to clashes between tribal groups and Bengali settlers in the southeast part of the nation.  The violence in Khagrachhari is worrisome in this small nation with many minority groups including Chittagong Hill Tracts and Rohingya near the Myanmar border.  The timing of the ethnic violence is worrisome, particularly as a trial begins over the mutiny by the Bangladesh Rifles that took place one year ago, leaving 74 people dead including 57 officers.  900 officers face charges, and the outcome of this trial could have implications for stability in this nation.

Olympic Forecasting Prediction
The next winter Olympics is planned for 2014 in the Russian Black Sea Resort of Sochi.  Sochi however is dangerously close to the breakaway Georgian Province of Abkhazia, where Russian peacekeepers have long been suspected of providing material and military support to Abkhazia’s claim for independence.  Following the 2008 war between Georgia and Russia in South Ossetia, Russia formerly recognized Abkhazia’s independence and began issuing Russian passports to some Abkhazians.  And last week, Russia reached an agreement to put a Russian military base on Abkhazian soil.  This area is a tinderbox for conflict.  Other unstable regional neighbors in the Northern Caucasus include, South Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan.  But continued tension between Russia and Georgia and disputes over Abkhazia and South Ossetia could see the next Olympics dangerously close to a latent if not active war zone.

You can read this Foreign Affairs Roundup every Friday on the Simple Intelligence Site and the Huffington Post World Page.

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By Victoria
February 26, 2010

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Foreign Affairs Roundup — Friday, February 19, 2010

This Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs:

Washington-Damascus Talks
 Perhaps the most significant piece of news for international diplomacy this week came from Syria, where President Bashar Assad met with senior US diplomat William Burns.  The meeting took place one day after US President Obama announced the nomination of William Ford to fill the job of Ambassador to Damascus, a post that has been vacant since 2005 after the killing of Lebanese leader Rafiq Hariri.  The meeting was reportedly honest and productive.  Burns, who was largely responsible for the opening of normalized relations with Libya, and Assad are said to have discussed a number of issues, both in areas where they disagree and where there is room for cooperation.  As Obama foreign policy becomes clearer, particularly with a harder line against Iran, it is increasingly apparent that Syria would be Washington’s golden egg.  A Damascus wooed away from Tehran, party to peace talks with Israel, and supportive of counter-terrorism and anti-Islamist campaigns throughout the Middle East would be a boon to American foreign policy.  It could also, provided enough economic results for Syrian citizens, be a welcome infusion of economic and political rewards to Syria as a whole and Assad’s government in particular.

What to do about a Nuclear Iran?
At celebrations commemorating the 31st anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that Iran was a nuclear state.  The IAEA would tend to agree.  In its most recent report the UN watchdog agency says that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons and has increased its enrichment acitivity.  The US showdown with Tehran is imminent:  US emissaries were dispatched across the Middle East last week — to Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar — and many expect a new round of financial sanctions with a clearly articulated threat of possible use of force to come out of Washington with unanimous support from Europe, Russia and allies in the Middle East (China will of course remain silent).

A Messy Assassination
The assassination of Hamas leader Mahmoud al-Mabhouh last month in Dubai continues to spark international intrigue.  Opinion in the Arab world, as well as some in the West and even Israel point to Israel’s Mossad as responsible for the slaying.  While Israel has not admitted to any responsibility, it has faced a new round of international scrutiny and diplomatic tensions are on the rise.  On Tuesday, Dubai police released a list with pictures and passport numbers of 11 suspects accused of stalking and killing al-Mabhouh.  The passports of purported European provenance (UK, Ireland, France and Germany) were all apparently forged.  Foreign Ministry officials in both Ireland and the UK have summoned Israeli ambassadors over the case, putting Israeli-British and Israeli-Irish relations on thin ice.  A backlash on London also resulted, for what some commentators view as the UK’s tacit sanction of Mossad activity by allowing Israel to use British documents to carry out covert operations.  (This line of criticism could call into question the integrity of European interlocutors in peace talks).

War Reports:
Afghanistan/Pakistan
The joint Coalition and Afghan offensive in Marjah in Helmand Province reportedly is advancing well.  Despite some setbacks including sophisticated sniper fire, extensive hiddent IED and mine fields, some reported troop defections and some civilian deaths, the sentiment on the ground is that things have gone well this week.  Whether this represents a real change of the tide, troops and military strategists were boosted by the news that Pakistani and US forces had made some significant action against the Afghan Taliban within Pakistan.  The biggest news being the capture of Taliban Commander Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar.  The action in Helmand Province was also complemented by increased drone attacks along the Afghan-Paksitan border.

Iraq
As authorities prepare for up to 19 million Iraqis to head to as many as 48,000 polling stations across Iraq on 7 March to vote in Parliamentary elections, controversy continues regarding the disqualification of over 500 candidates for alleged links to the Baath Party.  Iraq’s secular coalition, led by former Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allaw, suspended its campaign in protest of the murky current political environment.

Analysis is Brief:

Chinese Ire
US President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton both met with the Dalai Lama in Washington and Beijing took many efforts to express its discontent for what it considers American meddling in internal Chinese affairs.  US-Sino affairs are certainly on the fritz following a US arms deal with Taiwan and Google’s threat to withdraw from China.  Further this week the US says it has traced recent cyber attacks on Google and US companies to two Chinese universities with ties to the military.

Russia’s first big post-Soviet reconquest
Russia says it will establish a permanent military base in the Georgian breakaway republic of Abkhazia, situated along the Black Sea and one of the subjects of the Russian-Georgian war of 2008.  This tightened grip by Moscow on former Soviet land, while predictable, met a good deal of criticism: Georgia, of course, was irate; NATO called the agreement “invalid”.  The Russian announcement may in response to the US’ revised Missile Defense plans in Romania and Bulgaria.  Notably, Russia and the US have yet to reach an agreement to succeed the now defunct START agreement.

Niger’s Coup
In response to Niger President Tandja’s dissolution of Parliament, soldiers stormed the Presidential Palace in Niamey and the President’s whereabouts are unknown at present.

You Say Falklands, I Say Malvinas
Argentina and Britain traded barbs this week ahead of a UN meeting with the Rio Group, where Argentina says it intends to contest British oil exploration in the waters off the coast of the disputed Islands.

Happy Birthday, Dear Leader
This week, North Korean despot Kim Jong-Il turned 68 with stately and propagandist celebrations.  At present, Kim is likely ill, the majority of the population is impoverished, the international community is irate over Pyongyang’s nuclear program, and an unstable power struggle is expected upon Kim’s death.  The day led many commentators to cast more predictions about North Korea after Kim Jong-Il.

Yemeni Ceasefire
Yemen’s cease-fire agreement with Houthi rebels is holding, though there have been some outbreaks in violence and Saudi officials remain very weary of Houthi activity along the border.

Splinter Insurgency
A previously unknown group Lashkar-e-Toiba al-Alam claimed responsibility for an attack in the Indian city of Pune that killed nine and injured nearly 60

You can read this Foreign Affairs Roundup on the Simple Intelligence Site and the Huffington Post World Page every Friday.


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By Victoria
February 19, 2010

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Foreign Affairs Roundup — Friday, February 12, 2010

This Week’s Top Story in Foreign Affairs:

Iran Ramps it Up
This week, on the eve of the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, the Iranian government announced that it had begun nuclear enrichment at a higher level of 20% purity, getting ever closer to weapon’s grade capability.  This move went in strict opposition to international demands from the International Atomic Energy Association and the P5+1 (The UN Security Council plus Germany).  As could be expected, the move was met with disdain from all Western power and Russia, while China announced that it was aiming to resume international negotiations and Washington immediately started discussing future sanctions.  Containment via sanctions is turning into a ineffective and potentially futile route especially if China refuses to go along.

While the White House dismissed Iran’s enrichment claims, it also took a jibe at Tehran’s clampdown on the opposition ahead of the anniversary of the Revolution, claiming that the Islamic Republic had “unplugged” Google in the country.  (In the void, Twitter has again rushed in and has illuminated some of the picture on the ground: anti-government protests silenced by even larger pro-Ahmadinejad rallies bolstered by the Revolutionary Guard).

So, as a missile is raised in Tehran’s Azahi square, what can we expect to happen next?  This all depends whether Tehran is acting from a place of desperation or strategic manouvering.  And analysts are very divided on what the Iranian’s leadership is actually thinking.  For certain, the timing of this week’s announcements stem from the Ahmadinejad government’s determination to nip protests in the bud. But is it an act of deperation or merely the successful use repressive force?  Tehran may also be trying to strengthen the Iranian hand ahead of engaging in another round of negotiations.  Or it may be pursuing an irrational belligerence as it seems to have lost the support of the Russians and is hoping that China will intervene on its behalf (Beijing is likely to remain neutral).

The risk of conflict is high: Iran seems ever closer to developing a nuclear weapon; it has demonstrated that its fire power is tangible; its actions seem consistent with an agenda intent on developping a nuclear weapon; and it seems to rely on its credible threat of launching assymetrical attack of retaliation (read: bombing the Strait of Hormuz and activating its international terror network) in the case of the use of force or too stringent sanctions.  And then the wild card of Israel and its use of deterrent force remains.

War Reports:

Afghan Offensive
 US and NATO forces launch a major attack in southern town of Marjah in Helmand Province.  Ahead of the offensive, US and NATO forces tried to woo tribal elders on the virtues of the offensive and encourage civilians to flee the area. Even before the launch, the International Red Cross reported an increase in casualties in Helmand Province.  Meanwhile, NATO is seeking to recruit greater involvement of international partners, including China, Russia, India and the republics of central Asia, in their efforts in Afghanistan.  Elsewhere, Pakistan expresses interest in participating more formally in Afghan talks.  And while President Hamid Karzait seeks to gain support for his Taliban reconciliation talks, the Afghan warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the rebel leader of Hizb-i-Islami, in Helmand Province says that he could disarm if foreign forces leave within 18 months and that an interim government is formed while a new Afghan Constitution.

Iraqi Elections
The Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission released the names of 6,172 approved candidates to stand in the 7 March Parliamentary election and printed ballots in preparation for the election.  Many Shia contested this action as they are still appealing the Appeals Court decision to reverse a ban on over 500 people, many Sunni, by the Justice and Accountability Commission.  Pre-election tension is rife. There are allegations that members of the military and police were distributing campaign propaganda.  Analysts are watching closely the campaigning and the eventual results in and around Mosul and across Nineveh Province, which many hope will ease Sunni-Kurd tensions but many feel results might stoke antipathy and result in violence.

Analysis in Brief:

Election Aftermath and Foreshadowing

Goodluck Jonathan’s Good Luck
Nigeria’s National Assembly voted to discharge President Umaru Yar’Adua of his duties and invest Goodluck Jonathan as temporary leader until next year’s elections.  However, since the President did not relinquish his authority despite a protracted absence due to his ailing health, the vote has no legal authority.  Analysts hope that Nigeria’s ruling elite will accept the political compromise to the current power vacuum and that governance will slowly be resume, though many acknowledge there is a risk for further conflict.

Action in Somalia
Backed by 5,400 African Union peacekeepers and the Ahlu Sunnah Wal-jammah militia, the Transitional Federal Government launches an offensive against Islamist insurgency group al-Shabbab in Mogadishu.  Intense fighting is reported and governement officials claim to have killed Amar Ibrahim, al-Shabbab’s leader.

Sudanese Peace Perhaps
Peace and stability seemed possible in Sudan, which would bring much needed relief to the people of Darfur.  The leaders of Chad and the Sudan seemed closer to reaching a peace agreement this week, pledging (as they have before) to pursue measures to end the protracted and deathly conflict.  Furthermore, Southern Sudan’s willingness to continue to share oil revenue with the Khartoum government for an indeterminent period of time, even if it chooses succession in a referendum next January, bodes well for the countries stability.

UN Envoy in North Korea
UN envoy Lynn Pascoe travels to Pyongyang to discuss North Korea’s return to six-party talks (which it quit last April) concerning its rogue nuclear program.  Meanwhile, a North Korean envoy goes to Beijing to discuss the same issue.  All parties declare that they are satisfied with the talks, but there is no indication talks will resume.

South Africa - 20 Years Later
20 years ago this week Nelson Mandela was released from the Victor Verster Prison in South Africa.  His release was a turning point in the end to apartheid and the welcoming of South Africa on to the world stage eventually as a rising power.  20 years later, South Africa celebrates its status as the richest nation in Africa and will host the World Cup.  However, it is not without its problems which include a massive AIDS epidemic, scandals and condemnation of the current President Zuma, and unstable neighbors, particularly Zimbabwe.  As President Zuma’s State of the Nation speech this week discussed, there is still much work to do and many are very doubtful that Zuma and the current ANC leadership are up to thet ask.

What’s going on in The Philippines?
Last weekend, the Philippine army arrested 43 “rebels”, suspected members of the long-standing communist insurgency group, the New People’s Army (NPA).  Some inquiry by international aid groups, spurred by demands by the families of the arrested people revealed a different picture: that 43 health workers at a training session in rural Philippines had been arrested.  The Filipino Supreme Court ordered the military and police to present the 43 individuals to a Court of Appeals as part of an inquiry into the matter.  No matter what the case, and who these 43 people are, Manila’s credibility has been damaged (as if it wasn’t already), and other more dangerous rebel groups like the Moro Islamic Liberation Front or Abu Sayyaf could take advantage.

You can read this Foreign Affairs Roundup on the Simple Intelligence Site or the Huffington Post World Page every Friday.



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By Victoria
February 12, 2010

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Foreign Affairs Roundup — Friday, February 5, 2010

This Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs:

Peace Prevails in Ireland
A last minute peace deal is reached in Northern Ireland to peacefully devolve London control of Northern Ireland’s police and judicial system to Belfast while changing the oversight of loyalist militias and parades.  Growing tension and public scandal had derailed efforts by Protestant and Catholic leaders to see through the tenets of a power sharing coalition that ended years a protracted and violent civil war.  DUP head Peter Robinson and Sinn Fein leader Martin McGuinness agreed to the deal mediated by British PM Gordon Brown and Irish head or Taoiseach Brian Cowen.

Persian Posturing For All
Iran made some big moves this week showing that it is very much a global player that can drive agendas.  This week, Tehran launched a rocket into space carrying living organisms (including worms, turtles and a rat).  Shortly after that, President Ahmadinejad announced that he was prepared to accept (but on his terms) the proposal from last fall from the 5+1 (the UN Security Council + Germany) to exchange “fuel for fuel”, shipping partially enriched uranium to the West which would then be shipped back to Iran as nuclear fuel for a power plant.  (His announcement was dismissed as a stalling tactic by world leaders.)  This move was logical, as Iran needs respond to President Obama’s harsh warning during the State of the Union and came in the wake of greater reporting on the buildup of US defenses in the Persian Gulf.  Tehran also countered the reports telling Gulf nations not to buy US missiles as Iranian weapons would render them useless.  Iran faces yet another layer of sanctions and 2010 could prove to be a delicate year with fomenting internal unrest, a stabilizing Iraq, increased international focus on the issue of nuclear proliferation, and the ever-present threat of an Israeli or US strike on weapons facilities.

China-US Tensions Continue
Well, it didn’t take too long.  After a year of growing tensions on both sides of the Pacific, Chinese-American relations took a turn for the worse this week.  US President Barack Obama spoke out against Beijing’s policy of pegging the yuan to the value of the dollar, which, according to many (and mostly Western) economists, undervalues China’s currency and makes for an artificial hole in the world’s economy.  Obama’s words are viewed by some analysts as dangerous.  The issue has been a long standing one, and had received a good deal of attention from former US Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson.  The tension stemming from China’s alleged currency manipulation is important for its massive economy.  That being said, it is not the only issue between the US and Beijing.  There was the hoopla last week over Google’s threat to leave China.  Last Friday, the US announced a $6 billion arms deal with Taiwan.  This week , Obama also announced that he would meet the Dalai Lama.  With former Chinese officials seeing “dark clouds on the horizon” for Sino-American relations, a lot of good will is likely to be seen from Washington in the coming months.  Thursday’s US-bred panda shipment to China is a start.  Expect Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to fly to Beijing soon.  International human rights advocated take note that a year ago this week, Human Rights activist Gao Zhisheng went missing from his home.

War Reports:

Iraq
Two female suicide bombers attacked in Baghdad killing 54 people in the latest of a string of attacks targeting Shias, raising political tensions and unease in the Iraqi capital.  Greater political crisis was hopefully averted when an appeals court overturned a ban by the Justice and Accountability Commission of over 500 people from running in the 7 March Parliamentary elections.  However, PM Maliki has convened Parliament on Sunday to debate the “illegal” decision.  US and Western leaders are hopeful that the appeals court decision will stand so that all parties, an in particular minority Sunnis, will have a fair running in the upcoming election.

Afghanistan/Pakistan
President Karzai returned from a Donor’s conference in London with a heavy mandate to form a Cabinet, foster political reconciliation with medium and low level Taliban, build up his own security forces, stamp out corruption, implement a National Justice Program and reinforce the socio-political structures of his fledgling state.  Kabul also intends to seek an entente with Government, Tribal and Taliban leaders though calling a loya jirga or tribal council and immediately sought to find a mediator with the Taliban in Saudi Arabia or Pakistan.  As US and NATO troops prepare for a massive offensive on Taliban strongholds, they continue to apply other multiple and varied tactics to bring Afghanistan under control: seeking to woo local leaders to support US actions and even reaching commitments from some tribes, including the Shinwari Tribe in the Nangarhar Province, to fight directly against the Taliban.  Meanwhile, focus grows on Pakistan’s political crisis which seems exacerbated by growing US incursions into Pakistan, the growth of a US diplomatic presence in Pakistan, US intervention in what many consider Pakistani internal affairs and even the presence of US special forces within Pakistan.  The porous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan’s restive Kandahar and Helmand Provinces remain a strategic concern for the US and NATO effort in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, following the confirmed death of Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud in a 14 January US drone attack, the Pakistani Taliban named Malik Noor Jamal, or Mullah Toofan, as their new leader.

Analysis in Brief:

Hamas Assassination Mystery
This week a Hamas operative, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, was assassinated in Dubai.  Fingers across the Middle East immediately pointed to Israel. Dubai’s government even announced that it would seek Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu’s arrest if it turns out that the Mossad is responsible for al-Mabhouh’s death.  No matter what the case, neither Israel or Hamas will stand to gain much.  Meanwhile, talks for a good-faith, confidence-building prisoner swap between Hamas and Israel, involving the possible release of Israel soldier Gilad Shalit, broke down.

Yemen Ceasefire Thwarted
Reports emerged that a ceasefire between the Yemeni government and al Houthis rebels was scrapped after the rebels would not promise to stop attacking across the Saudi border.  Houthis spokesmen claimed however that they were open to a prisoner swap in exchange for a cease in Saudi cross-border attacks, the rebels reportedly hold a score of Saudi border guards and soldiers.  Meanwhile, rumors circulated that US special forces were stepping up operations in Yemen, most likely against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula strongholds to the south.

No Substantive US-Europe Rift
That President Obama will not attend a US-EU Summit in Spain in May is not the big story that the mainstream press is trying to make of it.  Obama had never planned to attend the Summit.  The real issue still lies in that the EU has yet to make itself a competent and united foreign policy interlocutor for the US and the world.

Damascus on the Mind
Israeli and Syrian leaders traded aggressive barbs this week, with Syrian President Bashir Assad accusing, “Israel is driving the region towards war, not peace”.  Walid Moallem, the Syrian foreign minister, further threatened Israel that “you know that war at this time will reach your cities”.  Not to be outdone, Israel’s extremist Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman called for Syria to release all claims on the Golan Heights and warned Damascus that “in the next war [with Israel], not only will you lose, but you and your family will lose the regime”.  Israel’s mainstream political apparatus did its best to temper Lieberman’s comments and call for further cooperation and the pursuit of a peace agreement.  Elsewhere, the US nominated Robert Ford a state department veteran to fill the post of US Ambassador to Syria, the post has been vacant since the US ceased relations with Syria following the assassination of Rafiq Hariri.  Meanwhile, Iraqi and US soldiers announced the creation of a security fence on a part of the Syrian border to help stymie the influx of Sunni insurgents.

What’s Next for Dagestan?
Russian President Medvedev is slated to name the next leader of the violent and volatile Russian Republic of Dagestan.  Couched between the Caspian Sea and the restive states of Chechnya and Ingushetia, cuurent President Mukhu G. Aliyev has had great difficulty in bringing radical political Islamists and over 30 clashing ethnic groups to heal.  Analysts are divided on whether Medvedev should reappoint Aliyev or bring in some new blood with Magomed I. Abdullayev, a deputy prime minister.  In any case, he must decide before 20 February.

A New START Soon
The US and Russia reconvened in Geneva this week to negotiate a successor treaty to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) that expired in December.  Most analysts expect a new treaty to emerge in the next few weeks.  Last year, Presidents Medvedev and Obama agreed to reduce nuclear warheads by 25% and carrier missiles by 30%.  The news that Romania accepted a US proposal to host ballistic interceptor missiles did not see to derail talks.

Ugandan Gay Rights and Wrongs
Uganda returned to headlines this week as Obama spoke out against a bill in Kampala that would impose the death penalty for some gays and lesbians.  This controversial bill has become a foreign policy issue for Uganda as governments in Africa and around the world watch its passage.  It speaks loudly, especially in Africa, where nation building can often curtail the rights of controversial minority groups: anti-gay US activitists who traveled on “humanitarian” junkets to Uganda are behind the conception and drafting bill.  Expect more controversy to follow, especially if the bill becomes law.

Ukrainian Election Drama
In a bizarre and strange twist, current President (but loser in last month’s primary), western leaning and pro-democratic champion Victor Yushchenko signed into law an election law that seems strangely undemocratic.  The bylaw designed to ensure proper oversight of urns by all party representatives was amended to lower the threshold for a valid quorum.  Underdog, Yulia Tymoshenko said that the action was undemocratic and greatly hampered the chances of a free and fair election.  The initiative was pushed through Parliament by supporters of Victor Yanukovich, the pro-Russian opposition leader and leader in the polls.  Watch as this could evolve into a major political crisis in Ukraine.

You can read this roundup on the Simple Intelligence Site and on the Huffington Post World Page every Friday.



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By Victoria
February 5, 2010

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Foreign Affairs Roundup — January 29, 2010

This Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs:

Desperate or Deliberate Moves from North Korea?
Behind the bells and whistles of US President Barack Obama’s State of the Union where the US President claimed that sanctions are working against North Korea, the international pariah state continued to make concrete belligerent moves in its foreign policy this week.  The week began on Sunday with Pyongyang accusing Seoul of declaring war by announcing that it would make a preemptive attack if it suspected the South of planning a nuclear attack.  Following this, the North has carried out a series of “military exercises” along a disputed naval border with the South, lobbing missiles and artillery towards the contentious line.  Although Pyongyang calls these drills “routine”, Seoul and its allies are watching tensely.  Meanwhile, North Korea arrested another American in addition to Robert Park, a missionary who was arrested Christmas Day.  This second American had allegedly trespassed into the isolated state evidently investigating human rights issues.  This arrest is sure to raise tensions between Washington and the US again, just as they had been during the imprisonment of two American journalists earlier this year.  Such tension was already evident as Washington rebuffed an offer from Pyongyang to reopen talks on locating American remains from the Korean War.  The US responded to the proposal by saying that the North should first come clear and clean on its nuclear ambitions.

The State of the Union - What Else?
It was a given that something would be left out of US President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address.  Although the President focused much of his speech precisely on what it was intended to do (present the state of the union) many analysts and pundits have remarked that it was volume-low on foreign policy (only 11 out of 69 minutes).  Why did he sideline foreign policy?  Whether it should have included more foreign policy items is beside the point here.  The items he brought up were competition in alternative energy markets, sanctions on Iran and North Korea, commitment to the Doha trade talks, and an urge to get trading partners to play by the rules for imports and exports.  He also emphasized that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are winnable and controllable.  Remarkably missing from the speech was any mention of Israel-Palestine, or instability in Pakistan and Yemen.  Both of these nations are key fronts in America’s war against terrorism, and have been a focal point in foreign policy.  This is telling, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton skipped out on the State of the Union address to meet in London with world leaders to discuss the deteriorating situation in Yemen and Islamist extremists’ growing presence there.

War Reports:

Afghanistan/Pakistan
65 nations gathered at a Donors Conference in London to pledge support to the struggling nation and Afghan President Karzai sought to reassure international leaders that Afghanistan is on the right track.  This was a tough task for Karzai, who’s election was greatly contested and who has yet been able to name a complete Cabinet.  During this conference, Karzai clearly stated his intention to foster reconciliation as a key component of his domestic policy, including making peace through tribal councils with Taliban leaders.  This is in contrast to the American and NATO strategy to reintegrate low level factions of the Taliban.  Taliban leaders have scoffed at this initiative.  Meanwhile, a convoy bringing key NATO supplies to Afghanistan was attacked in the key port city of Karachi (a rare and troublesome occurrence).

Iraq
Three coordinated car bombs rocked Baghdad, and killed over 30 people on Monday.  One target, the Hamra hotel, is a noted haunt for foreign journalists. Analysts believe this is an effort of insurgents seeking to undermine the upcoming Parliamentary elections on 7 March.  Far more likely to disrupt the elections has been the Justice and Accountability Commission’s insistence that its disqualification of hundreds of candidates, many of them Sunni, is legal and non-partisan. Some people have suggested, though officials have denied it, that Iranian influence has played a part in the Commission’s decisions.  Meanwhile, US and Iraqi security forces both confirmed that wanted insurgent Abu Khalaf was killed in the restive area of Mosul.

Analysis in Brief:

Palestinian reconciliation?
On Monday, analysts groaned that Hamas and Fatah were no closer to reconciling their nearly 3-year territorial split amid the expiration of the term of the Palestinian parliament.  Then on Thursday, Hamas suggested it was interested in resuming talks via Egyptian moderators in Cairo.  Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak that it was willing to begin low-level talks with the Palestinian Authority.  If this small goodwill translates into something larger then we could be in another round of Mideast negotiations.

Belarus buys in and Moscow Enhances Its Sphere of Influence
Following all the hype last week with pro-Russian v. pro-Russian runoff in Ukraine’s elections, another former Soviet republic, Belarus, made news this week.  Minsk and Moscow reached a deal after a month of back-and-forth proposals concerning oil deliveries.  The agreement states that Belarus’ tariffs for oil will only increase by 11 percent.  It allows Europe to make a sigh of relief… until next year.  Clearly, a solution for energy security for Europe is far off so long as nations like Belarus and Ukraine base large portions of national revenue on transit fees for natural resources.

Shaky Status-Quo in Southern Lebanon
Following a Lebanese Parliamentary resolution allowing Hezbollah to keep its arms as long as Israel poses a threat to Lebanese sovereignty and growing worry that Hezbollah is rearming, Israeli leaders have said that the entire Lebanese state, not just Hezbollah, will be the target of Israeli aggression should the border situation escalate.  And more recently, Lebanese leaders have claimed to have obtained French guarantees to support Lebanese infrastructure in case of an Israeli attack.  Despite this saber rattling on both sides, heads of the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) remain optimistic that conflict will not break out again, though they say both sides could do more to promote peace.

First Peacetime Sri Lankan Elections
Incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa is re-elected President with 58% of the vote against 40% for opposition leader General Sarath Fonseka.  Fonseka says he is contesting the results and security forces surrounded his hotel, but this drama will subside with time.  Both Fonseka. as former head of the Army, and Rajapaksa are credited with ending the 26 year civil war the Tamil Tigers.  The political allies then suffered a split over who should receive credit for the victory.  The winner is now tasked with actually rehabilitating and maintaining a peaceful country, a harder task than merely winning the election.

This Foreign Affairs Roundup can be read on the Simple Intelligence Site or the Huffington Post World Page every Friday.

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By Victoria
January 29, 2010

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