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Weekly Foreign Affairs Roundup — Friday, June 4, 2010

This Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs

Israel and the Ill-fated Flotilla
 9 people were killed and scores wounded when the Israeli Navy stormed the “Freedom Flotilla” led by the pro Palestinian Free Gaza Movement and Turkish NGO Insani Yardim Vakfi.  Over a thousand protesters were arrested as well, but then quickly released.  International indignation ensued with the UN Human Rights Council calling for an official inquiry into the incident.  Israel contends that it was rightly defending a legal blockade and that it only responded with force once its soldiers were attacked with sticks and knives.  Israel also says that it was deeply concerned that the flotilla carried not only humanitarian supplies but arms for Hamas.  The protesters say the Israelis attacked as soon as the boarded the ship, the Mavi Marmara.  Both sides have released videos to justify their claims.  Thought leaders generally agree that Israel poorly handled what was essentially a PR initiative by the Turkish NGOs by responding with force and essentially causing itself further international isolation. What is worse is that the incident has deepened the rift between necessary Israeli ally Turkey.  Many argue that Israel actually played right into the hands of the protesters and Hamas, who maintains an iron grip on Gaza.  The result being that Israel will have to amend its blockade of Gaza, which represents a very real security risk, as a starting step to amend its flailing international reputation, to reengage with Turkey and to possibly resume the flegling proximity talks with Fatah, brokered by the US.  Indeed, Israel has already conceded that it is “exploring new ways” to allow non-lethal goods into Gaza.

Iran and its Nuclear Fuel
Iran’s delay tactics may have allowed it to acquire enough nuclear fuel for two nuclear weapons, according to the latest report from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog.  Furthermore, the report goes into great detail how Iran has misguided, evaded and denied access to key sites international inspectors. This news will certainly give more momentum to the Obama Administration’s push for a fourth round of sanctions against Iran and take the wind out of sails of a side deal Iran made with Turkey and Brazil to export a portion of its fuel.

War Reports:

Iraq
Iraq’s Supreme Court validated the election results from March thus the giving secular Iraqiyya alliance headed by former premier Iyad Allawi a slim lead.  Wrangling between parties to lead the formation of a coalition government did not seem abate despite the news.  The two Shia coalitions, PM Maliki’s State of Law and the the United Iraqi Alliance have yet to agree to terms that would allow it to form a ruling coalition (a lot of the debate seems to stem from whether Maliki will remain PM).  Meanwhile the Kurds will back Allawi if the stalemate continues.  How all major factions will finally manage to form a government eludes even the keenest analysts at present. With violence on the rise and the risk of sectarian violence rising (though still relatively low), the US is urging Iraq to form a legitimate and widely accepted government ahead of its combat force withdrawal at August’s end.

Afghanistan
Rocket attacks for which the Afghan Taliban claimed responsability disrupted a major peace Jirga aimed at finding means for reconciliation between Afghanistan’s rivaling factions including the Afghan Taliban.  Afghan Police with US air support successfully pushed back a Pakistani Taliban attempt to move into Nuristan Province.  But the victory was short lived when another similar attack, along the border that abuts Pakistan, was reported in Paktia Province. The Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for an attack on two mosques targeting the Ahmadis, a long persecuted minority sect of Islam.  Much reviled and debated drone attacks in Pakistan continued to yield fruit when American intelligence operatives claimed that a top financial chief for Al Qaeda Mustafa Abu al-Yazid had been killed in the attacks.

Analysis in Brief:

Burma’s Nuclear Ambitions
A US Senator canceled an upcoming trip to Myanmar after he received intelligence suggesting that the military Junta is attempting to develop a nuclear weapons program.

South Korea Leadership Crisis
As the US assists Seoul in developing a compelling Naval Defense Plan, hopes were dashed for a strong unified international response when China refused to hold Pyongyang responsible for the sinking of a South Korean Cheonan warship last month.  It seemed that support was waning for South Korea’s strong response to the incident not only internationally but domestically as well when voters rebuked in regional elections the hardline and anti-engagement policies of President Lee Myung-bak’s Grand National Party.

Japanese Leadership Crisis
After less than nine months, Japan PM Yukio Hatoyama resigned following his inability to convince the US to relocate a key air force base off the island of Okinawa.  Naoto Kan will replace him.

India and the Naxalites
In the latest of a string of recent violent activity, Maoist rebels derailed a train in West Bengal killing at least 70 people and injuring over 140. Over the past year, India has stepped up its response to the growing presence of the Naxalites across many states launching a multistate police and paramilitary campaign known as Operation Green Hunt.  Analysts are now trying to evaluate whether recent attacks indicate that the campaign is working to circumscribe the Naxalites area of influence or merely exacerbating the situation.

You can read this Foreign Affairs Roundup every Friday on the Simple Intelligence Site or the Huffington Post World Page.



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By Victoria
June 4, 2010

2 comments

This Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs:

Increasing Tension in the Korean Peninsula

Tension in the Korean Peninsula seems to escalate by the minute. The fallout from Seoul’s formal accusation of Pyongyang for the sinking of its warship last month started with Seoul greatly curbing trade and blasting the North with propaganda from loud speakers; then the North threatened to take any violation of its naval airspace as an act of war worthy of retaliation and said it will fire at the loud speakers; Seoul then severed many official ties, blocked passage of Northern cargo through its waters and shored up international support and indignation; Pyongyang then cut off a naval hotline specifically designed to stave off conflict. US support for the South and pleadings with China to intervene and help mitigate the crisis seemed to yield few results. Theories abound as to why the North has tuned to a belligerent posture (trying to shore succession to Kim Jong-Il’s third son, unilateral action from a rogue naval general, dissenting and rebellious armed forces, a tactic of distraction to deflect from the ongoing economic and food crisis, poor judgment from an ailing Jong-Il, a hapless effort to strike out before trying to reengage with the international community and gain concessions for better behavior, etc.). Where this will lead no one knows, but it is looking like imminent conflict unless China chooses to intervene and tries to diffuse the crisis.

American Security Strategy

US President Obama presented his formal national security strategy on Thursday. With a mix of realist policies and principled priorities, Obama said the US would focus not only on fighting violent extremism but addressing nuclear proliferation, climate change, American energy dependence, reducing the budget deficit, drawing down the wars and other major global problems. Obama said America would maintain its military supremacy and diplomatic leadership (but still reserves the right to unilateral and preemptive action) whilst pursuing reinforced multilateral engagement with traditional and rising powers (and while supporting peaceful democratic movements and fledgling democracies).

War Reports:

Iraq

As the cost of the war in Afghanistan topped the cost of the war in Iraq for the US military, and as American Vice President Biden reiterated that the US’ withdrawal from Iraq will take place on time, progress in this country appears to be gaining ground. Nonetheless, analysts are skeptical to believe in any positive peaceful developments too fast. Calls for political unity in Iraq, coming particularly strongly from the UN, were heard this week, as the nation’s government tries to bring a tentative order to a chaotic land.

Afghanistan/Pakistan

As NATO and Afghan forces ready for a major action in Kandahar Province, violence surged in Nuristan Province in Barg-e-Matul district (from where coalition troops have recently withdrawn). The leader of the Pakistani Taliban in the Swat Valley, who fled from the recent Pakistani offensive there and was trying to establish a safe-haven in Nuristan, is reportedly killed in the fighting. Meanwhile, international condemnation of drone attacks heightened with a top UN official taking issue with the fact that drones are operated by intelligence officials rather than traditional combatants (thus reducing their accountability). Elsewhere, Pakistan and India exchanged in violent skirmishes in Kashmir. On Thursday, the US Senate approved a war spending bill that reveals the annual cost of the war in Afghanistan to have exceeded that of Iraq. With initiatives like the reintegration of Taliban soldiers into the fabric of Afghan society, this could continue to prove costly in both dollars and lives.

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By admin
May 28, 2010

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Foreign Affairs Roundup — Friday, May 21, 2010

This Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs:

Iran in the Hotseat
Diplomatic jousting between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s rogue nuclear program took many turns this week.  First, Brazil and Turkey negotiated with Tehran a watered down version of a previously reached but eventually abandoned agreement for Iran to export a portion of its enriched uranium (this time to Turkey rather than Russia).  Then, the five permanent members of the Security Council — the US, the UK, France as well as RUSSIA and CHINA — presented a new series of sanctions for consideration to the remaining members of the Security Council.  Russia and China are trying to encourage a diplomatic resolution by urging Iran to move forward with its newest agreeement while still pursuing the new sanctions.  Washington contends, and it follows that the other permanent members agree, that the proposed Brazil-Turkey-Iran agreement is just another stall tactic from Iran and does not adequately address Iran’s stockpiles of nuclear fuel, nor does it address its plutonium production and its shirking of compliance obligations.  Though many analysts welcomed the leadership of rising powers Brazil and Turkey in an effort to lead a diplomatic-driven denouement to the current stand-off — and allowing Iran to back down by reaching agreement with fellow “non-aligned states” rather than conceeding to the great nuclear powers — the lack of international solidarity is troubling but not fatal for both approaches.  Presenting a new sanctions at this point will give Iran cause to scrap its proposed uranium exports.  In any case though Turkey says that Iran has one month to make good on its agreement with Ankara, otherwise it will be on its own.   More importantly though, it undermines the efforts of key regional ally Turkey and emerging power Brazil, thus creating a rift between the strong nuclear countries and small, non-nuclear states (and risks once again making Iran the champion of universal rights to nuclear energy rather than drawing attention to its violations of the NPT).  That the Permanent Five chose to move forward on sanctions suggest that there is international consensus among the major powers that Iran is pushing its non-compliance enveloppe too far and that its day of accountability will be soon at hand.

War Reports:

Iraq
Doing very little to resolve Iraq’s political standoff, Iraq’s electoral commission endorsed the original election results after a partial recount, thereby confirming Iyad Allawi’s narrow victory over incumbent Nuri al-Maliki.  Maliki has been in talks with the third leading Shia party to form a coalition, but with a recent de-baathification agreement and the commissions findings, his claim on power and leadership would be seen as illegitimate especially from the minority Sunnis and Kurds who helped elect Allawi and are eager to see a secular and independent government (read not influenced by Washington or Tehran) emerge.

Afghanistan
Taliban Suicide bombings rocked Afghanistan — in Bagram, Kandahar and Kabul — this week ahead of the planned surge in Kandahar.  Sadly four commanders killed made them the highest ranking casualities in the eight years of conflicy.   Meanwhile the fighting in Helmand Province around Marja remains intense.

Analysis in Brief:

Calm for Now
After a heavy-handed crackdown and a violent popular response by red shirt protestors, the Thai government regained control of Bangkok after nine weeks of protests.  With dozens of deaths and hundreds on injured, protestors finally dispersed.  The conflict spawned from deep, systemic tension between the urban middle class and the rural poor.  Further civil rest has only been deferred.

What Next
South Korea formally accused North Korea of sinking its Cheonan warship in March.  However, Seoul and the international community have little room for a meaningful response.  A forceful response would provoke a violent retaliation from the North and most diplomatic channels are closed.  Sanctions are likely but unlikely to issue a compelling result as North Korea has threatened to consider any sanctions as an “act of war”.

You can read this Foreign Affairs Roundup every Friday on the Huffington Post World Page and the Simple Intelligence Site.

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By Victoria
May 21, 2010

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Weekly Foreign Affairs Roundup

The Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs:
As the world focuses on the UK elections, the European bailout and its faltering southern economies and financial regulation reform efforts in the West, other political crises continued to brew.

Waiting in the Wings
Iran conducted some rather aggressive war games, launching two medium-range surface to sea cruise missiles from its southern coast while Washington still struggles to find international consensus (read Turkish and Chinese especially) for sanctions against Iran’s rogue nuclear program.  Elsewhere, a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London estimates that Iran’s conventional, chemical and biological missile capacity could cause temporary damage with its 2-300 Shehab missiles but at present offers no strategic threat.  (It’s asymmetric warfare capacity is a whole other matter however).  Meanwhile, there is evidence that the US is seeking to create regional support for its policies by engaging with smaller players:  Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri will travel to Washington soon ahead of his visit to chair a meeting with the Lebanese rotating presidency on the UN Security Council.

Domestic Troubles
Kyrgyzstan, Thailand and Nepal all teetered on the brink of chaos this week.  Supporters of ousted Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev violently seized offices in the south of the country, sparking fears that more the risk of civil war has not yet been averted.  Hopes were dashed that an end of Thailand’s standoff between “red shirt” protesters and the government was at hand, when a rogue general was shot, water and electricity cut off to protesters’ temporary housing and violent clashes resumed.  Nepal’s Maoists however called off their two week long general strike, staving off a brewing political crisis (for now).

War Reports:

Iraq
Iraq experienced its most violent week of the year as a spate of bombings killed scores across the country.  The growing violence added to the feeling of uncertainty surrounding the protracted Shia power struggle that has left Baghdad in a power vacuum and has many speculating that the US will not be able to keep to its withdrawal calendar. Incumbent PM Nuri al-Maliki seems determined to hold onto power as he tries to forge an alliance with the sectarian Shia Iraqi National Alliance (INA), whereas winner of last months elections Iyad Allawi battled Iraqi courts to keep his candidate list valid (and reaching a deal to end de-Baathification) and maintain his very narrow two seat majority.  The longer the political crisis endures, the greater risk that the minority Sunni (and Kurd) populations will feel ever more disenfranchised and resort to violence.

Afghanistan/Pakistan
As Afghan and coalition troops prepare for a coming offensive in Kandahar, President Karzai visited Washington to discuss how to best buttress the fledgling Afghan state, conduct an amnesty program for low level Taliban and maintain popular support for the war effort there and improve ties between the two countries. Reports emerge that the Taliban are wreaking havoc across the province in preparation for the attack.

Middle East Peace
After 18 months, proximity talks between Israelis and Palestinians resumed with America playing principal arbiter.

The Weekly Foreign Affairs Roundup can be read on the Huffington Post World Page and the Simple Intelligence Site every Friday.

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By Victoria
May 14, 2010

1 comment

Foreign Affairs Roundup - Friday, April 30, 2010

This Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs:

Financial Mishaps
It was a week of tense financial news from Washington to Athens.  In the American Capitol, members of Congress grilled Goldman Sachs executives over their controversial mortgage derivative trading activities and new documents alleging that the financial giant knowingly engaged in activity that contributed to the 2008 economic downturn.  While Americans bickered, Europeans dealt with a much more tangible economic crisis: that of Greece.  Finding a tenable way to manage the crippling debt in Athens has faltered due to the intractable positions of European leaders, the IMF and the Papoulias government.  Markets grow ever more aware that Greece is not alone in its structural economic weakness and attention has spread to other parts of the EU, notably Spain.  As Greece went into meltdown, Spain’s credit rating plummeted, and fear for the future of the Euro spread throughout the continent.  As a result, increased criticism has been given to debt-rating agencies like the S&P for their role in casting a negative light on and castigating national markets.  One concern that has begun to resonate among analysts is this: what effect could the crisis in Greece have on the world’s economic recovery?

War Reports:

Iraq
An Iraqi court disqualifies two candidates in Ayad Allawi’s winning coalition in last months, erasing his two seat lead over incumbent Nuri al-Maliki.  Many analysts decried al-Maliki’s specious manipulation of the election results and worried that Iraq would be unable to form a coalition government ahead of the scheduled US withdrawal of combat forces in September.  At best this is a transient political crisis, at worse a protracted leadership vacuum could lead space for violent sectarian conflict to resume.

Afghanistan
US and Afghan forces continued their preliminary actions into Kandahar Province ahead of a major offensive there.  President Karzai’s brother Ahmed Wali Karzai heads the Kandahar Provincial Council and critics say that his corrupt practices and collusion with drug leaders have in advance already undermined any positive effect of a military victory against the Taliban. Elsewhere, reports emerge that Pakistan may be taking action against the Taliban in North Waziristan, where Afghan insurgents have long enjoyed relative sanctuary.  If true and if successful, it would be a significant advantage for the US effort in Afghanistan.

Analysis in Brief:

Base Politics
Japan and the US relations are strained as the Hatoyama government flails to find a solution to relocating the locally reviled Marine Corps Air Station Futenma on Okinawa ahead of a self-imposed deadline of end May.  There are reports that an agreement could see the base moved to Henoko Bay, outside of the city center but still on Okinawa.  Nearly 100,000 protesters took to the street demanding the relocation of the Station off the Island.  Some analysts believe that Tokyo wants the base moved to Tokunoshima Island, about 200 miles away and separating the Marine Station from the other US forces on Okinawa, a move previously rejected by Washington but perhaps an imperfect resolution to the problem.

Encryption and Decryption in China
How do you control the market?  Make the rules such that you have access to everything.  That’s what Beijing did this week to electronics by introducing rules that force electronics manufacturers to reveal the encryption codes to their products.  These codes which are proprietary per manufacturer, will allow the Chinese government to access much more data and technological control than before.  Most irked by this new regulation are foreign companies like Cisco Systems.  Although Cisco and other companies have not commented, many analysts remark that the measure will serve to bolster Chinese business and deter foreign companies that have no desire to decrypt their products.

Russia’s Rosy Week
It was a week of diplomatic victories for Moscow.  Perhaps the biggest victory was in Ukraine.  Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov announced that Moscow and Kiev would hold bilateral talks aimed at cooperation in a variety of arenas.  This came after physical fighting in the Ukrainian Parliament over a series of Russian-related agreements over a Black Sea port and pipeline issues.  In the end, analysts agree that the Kiev-Moscow pact further solidifies Russia’s hold over its former Soviet region, and spells bad news for European energy independence, at least in the short term.  Also this week, Russia and Norway ended a territorial dispute over their border on the floor of the Arctic Ocean.  Meanwhile, analysts note that Russo-Polish ties could be warming.

Hungary Turns Conservative
Hungary’s conservative party Fidesz won a two-thirds majority in a general election victory and its leader Viktor Orban will become prime minister. 

Crisis in Thailand
Though PM Abhisit Vejjajiva says he favors a political solution, the Thai government seemed to turn to a more strong handed response to the six week long political crisis that is turning more violent by the day with opposition red shirts and supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra who want the government to call early elections.

The Foreign Affairs Roundup can be read every Friday on the Huffington World Page and the Simple Intelligence Site.


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By Victoria
April 30, 2010

4 comments

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