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Foreign Affairs Roundup — Friday, February 5, 2010

This Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs:

Peace Prevails in Ireland
A last minute peace deal is reached in Northern Ireland to peacefully devolve London control of Northern Ireland’s police and judicial system to Belfast while changing the oversight of loyalist militias and parades.  Growing tension and public scandal had derailed efforts by Protestant and Catholic leaders to see through the tenets of a power sharing coalition that ended years a protracted and violent civil war.  DUP head Peter Robinson and Sinn Fein leader Martin McGuinness agreed to the deal mediated by British PM Gordon Brown and Irish head or Taoiseach Brian Cowen.

Persian Posturing For All
Iran made some big moves this week showing that it is very much a global player that can drive agendas.  This week, Tehran launched a rocket into space carrying living organisms (including worms, turtles and a rat).  Shortly after that, President Ahmadinejad announced that he was prepared to accept (but on his terms) the proposal from last fall from the 5+1 (the UN Security Council + Germany) to exchange “fuel for fuel”, shipping partially enriched uranium to the West which would then be shipped back to Iran as nuclear fuel for a power plant.  (His announcement was dismissed as a stalling tactic by world leaders.)  This move was logical, as Iran needs respond to President Obama’s harsh warning during the State of the Union and came in the wake of greater reporting on the buildup of US defenses in the Persian Gulf.  Tehran also countered the reports telling Gulf nations not to buy US missiles as Iranian weapons would render them useless.  Iran faces yet another layer of sanctions and 2010 could prove to be a delicate year with fomenting internal unrest, a stabilizing Iraq, increased international focus on the issue of nuclear proliferation, and the ever-present threat of an Israeli or US strike on weapons facilities.

China-US Tensions Continue
Well, it didn’t take too long.  After a year of growing tensions on both sides of the Pacific, Chinese-American relations took a turn for the worse this week.  US President Barack Obama spoke out against Beijing’s policy of pegging the yuan to the value of the dollar, which, according to many (and mostly Western) economists, undervalues China’s currency and makes for an artificial hole in the world’s economy.  Obama’s words are viewed by some analysts as dangerous.  The issue has been a long standing one, and had received a good deal of attention from former US Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson.  The tension stemming from China’s alleged currency manipulation is important for its massive economy.  That being said, it is not the only issue between the US and Beijing.  There was the hoopla last week over Google’s threat to leave China.  Last Friday, the US announced a $6 billion arms deal with Taiwan.  This week , Obama also announced that he would meet the Dalai Lama.  With former Chinese officials seeing “dark clouds on the horizon” for Sino-American relations, a lot of good will is likely to be seen from Washington in the coming months.  Thursday’s US-bred panda shipment to China is a start.  Expect Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to fly to Beijing soon.  International human rights advocated take note that a year ago this week, Human Rights activist Gao Zhisheng went missing from his home.

War Reports:

Iraq
Two female suicide bombers attacked in Baghdad killing 54 people in the latest of a string of attacks targeting Shias, raising political tensions and unease in the Iraqi capital.  Greater political crisis was hopefully averted when an appeals court overturned a ban by the Justice and Accountability Commission of over 500 people from running in the 7 March Parliamentary elections.  However, PM Maliki has convened Parliament on Sunday to debate the “illegal” decision.  US and Western leaders are hopeful that the appeals court decision will stand so that all parties, an in particular minority Sunnis, will have a fair running in the upcoming election.

Afghanistan/Pakistan
President Karzai returned from a Donor’s conference in London with a heavy mandate to form a Cabinet, foster political reconciliation with medium and low level Taliban, build up his own security forces, stamp out corruption, implement a National Justice Program and reinforce the socio-political structures of his fledgling state.  Kabul also intends to seek an entente with Government, Tribal and Taliban leaders though calling a loya jirga or tribal council and immediately sought to find a mediator with the Taliban in Saudi Arabia or Pakistan.  As US and NATO troops prepare for a massive offensive on Taliban strongholds, they continue to apply other multiple and varied tactics to bring Afghanistan under control: seeking to woo local leaders to support US actions and even reaching commitments from some tribes, including the Shinwari Tribe in the Nangarhar Province, to fight directly against the Taliban.  Meanwhile, focus grows on Pakistan’s political crisis which seems exacerbated by growing US incursions into Pakistan, the growth of a US diplomatic presence in Pakistan, US intervention in what many consider Pakistani internal affairs and even the presence of US special forces within Pakistan.  The porous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan’s restive Kandahar and Helmand Provinces remain a strategic concern for the US and NATO effort in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, following the confirmed death of Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud in a 14 January US drone attack, the Pakistani Taliban named Malik Noor Jamal, or Mullah Toofan, as their new leader.

Analysis in Brief:

Hamas Assassination Mystery
This week a Hamas operative, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, was assassinated in Dubai.  Fingers across the Middle East immediately pointed to Israel. Dubai’s government even announced that it would seek Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu’s arrest if it turns out that the Mossad is responsible for al-Mabhouh’s death.  No matter what the case, neither Israel or Hamas will stand to gain much.  Meanwhile, talks for a good-faith, confidence-building prisoner swap between Hamas and Israel, involving the possible release of Israel soldier Gilad Shalit, broke down.

Yemen Ceasefire Thwarted
Reports emerged that a ceasefire between the Yemeni government and al Houthis rebels was scrapped after the rebels would not promise to stop attacking across the Saudi border.  Houthis spokesmen claimed however that they were open to a prisoner swap in exchange for a cease in Saudi cross-border attacks, the rebels reportedly hold a score of Saudi border guards and soldiers.  Meanwhile, rumors circulated that US special forces were stepping up operations in Yemen, most likely against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula strongholds to the south.

No Substantive US-Europe Rift
That President Obama will not attend a US-EU Summit in Spain in May is not the big story that the mainstream press is trying to make of it.  Obama had never planned to attend the Summit.  The real issue still lies in that the EU has yet to make itself a competent and united foreign policy interlocutor for the US and the world.

Damascus on the Mind
Israeli and Syrian leaders traded aggressive barbs this week, with Syrian President Bashir Assad accusing, “Israel is driving the region towards war, not peace”.  Walid Moallem, the Syrian foreign minister, further threatened Israel that “you know that war at this time will reach your cities”.  Not to be outdone, Israel’s extremist Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman called for Syria to release all claims on the Golan Heights and warned Damascus that “in the next war [with Israel], not only will you lose, but you and your family will lose the regime”.  Israel’s mainstream political apparatus did its best to temper Lieberman’s comments and call for further cooperation and the pursuit of a peace agreement.  Elsewhere, the US nominated Robert Ford a state department veteran to fill the post of US Ambassador to Syria, the post has been vacant since the US ceased relations with Syria following the assassination of Rafiq Hariri.  Meanwhile, Iraqi and US soldiers announced the creation of a security fence on a part of the Syrian border to help stymie the influx of Sunni insurgents.

What’s Next for Dagestan?
Russian President Medvedev is slated to name the next leader of the violent and volatile Russian Republic of Dagestan.  Couched between the Caspian Sea and the restive states of Chechnya and Ingushetia, cuurent President Mukhu G. Aliyev has had great difficulty in bringing radical political Islamists and over 30 clashing ethnic groups to heal.  Analysts are divided on whether Medvedev should reappoint Aliyev or bring in some new blood with Magomed I. Abdullayev, a deputy prime minister.  In any case, he must decide before 20 February.

A New START Soon
The US and Russia reconvened in Geneva this week to negotiate a successor treaty to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) that expired in December.  Most analysts expect a new treaty to emerge in the next few weeks.  Last year, Presidents Medvedev and Obama agreed to reduce nuclear warheads by 25% and carrier missiles by 30%.  The news that Romania accepted a US proposal to host ballistic interceptor missiles did not see to derail talks.

Ugandan Gay Rights and Wrongs
Uganda returned to headlines this week as Obama spoke out against a bill in Kampala that would impose the death penalty for some gays and lesbians.  This controversial bill has become a foreign policy issue for Uganda as governments in Africa and around the world watch its passage.  It speaks loudly, especially in Africa, where nation building can often curtail the rights of controversial minority groups: anti-gay US activitists who traveled on “humanitarian” junkets to Uganda are behind the conception and drafting bill.  Expect more controversy to follow, especially if the bill becomes law.

Ukrainian Election Drama
In a bizarre and strange twist, current President (but loser in last month’s primary), western leaning and pro-democratic champion Victor Yushchenko signed into law an election law that seems strangely undemocratic.  The bylaw designed to ensure proper oversight of urns by all party representatives was amended to lower the threshold for a valid quorum.  Underdog, Yulia Tymoshenko said that the action was undemocratic and greatly hampered the chances of a free and fair election.  The initiative was pushed through Parliament by supporters of Victor Yanukovich, the pro-Russian opposition leader and leader in the polls.  Watch as this could evolve into a major political crisis in Ukraine.

You can read this roundup on the Simple Intelligence Site and on the Huffington Post World Page every Friday.



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By Victoria
February 5, 2010

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Foreign Affairs Roundup — January 29, 2010

This Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs:

Desperate or Deliberate Moves from North Korea?
Behind the bells and whistles of US President Barack Obama’s State of the Union where the US President claimed that sanctions are working against North Korea, the international pariah state continued to make concrete belligerent moves in its foreign policy this week.  The week began on Sunday with Pyongyang accusing Seoul of declaring war by announcing that it would make a preemptive attack if it suspected the South of planning a nuclear attack.  Following this, the North has carried out a series of “military exercises” along a disputed naval border with the South, lobbing missiles and artillery towards the contentious line.  Although Pyongyang calls these drills “routine”, Seoul and its allies are watching tensely.  Meanwhile, North Korea arrested another American in addition to Robert Park, a missionary who was arrested Christmas Day.  This second American had allegedly trespassed into the isolated state evidently investigating human rights issues.  This arrest is sure to raise tensions between Washington and the US again, just as they had been during the imprisonment of two American journalists earlier this year.  Such tension was already evident as Washington rebuffed an offer from Pyongyang to reopen talks on locating American remains from the Korean War.  The US responded to the proposal by saying that the North should first come clear and clean on its nuclear ambitions.

The State of the Union - What Else?
It was a given that something would be left out of US President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address.  Although the President focused much of his speech precisely on what it was intended to do (present the state of the union) many analysts and pundits have remarked that it was volume-low on foreign policy (only 11 out of 69 minutes).  Why did he sideline foreign policy?  Whether it should have included more foreign policy items is beside the point here.  The items he brought up were competition in alternative energy markets, sanctions on Iran and North Korea, commitment to the Doha trade talks, and an urge to get trading partners to play by the rules for imports and exports.  He also emphasized that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are winnable and controllable.  Remarkably missing from the speech was any mention of Israel-Palestine, or instability in Pakistan and Yemen.  Both of these nations are key fronts in America’s war against terrorism, and have been a focal point in foreign policy.  This is telling, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton skipped out on the State of the Union address to meet in London with world leaders to discuss the deteriorating situation in Yemen and Islamist extremists’ growing presence there.

War Reports:

Afghanistan/Pakistan
65 nations gathered at a Donors Conference in London to pledge support to the struggling nation and Afghan President Karzai sought to reassure international leaders that Afghanistan is on the right track.  This was a tough task for Karzai, who’s election was greatly contested and who has yet been able to name a complete Cabinet.  During this conference, Karzai clearly stated his intention to foster reconciliation as a key component of his domestic policy, including making peace through tribal councils with Taliban leaders.  This is in contrast to the American and NATO strategy to reintegrate low level factions of the Taliban.  Taliban leaders have scoffed at this initiative.  Meanwhile, a convoy bringing key NATO supplies to Afghanistan was attacked in the key port city of Karachi (a rare and troublesome occurrence).

Iraq
Three coordinated car bombs rocked Baghdad, and killed over 30 people on Monday.  One target, the Hamra hotel, is a noted haunt for foreign journalists. Analysts believe this is an effort of insurgents seeking to undermine the upcoming Parliamentary elections on 7 March.  Far more likely to disrupt the elections has been the Justice and Accountability Commission’s insistence that its disqualification of hundreds of candidates, many of them Sunni, is legal and non-partisan. Some people have suggested, though officials have denied it, that Iranian influence has played a part in the Commission’s decisions.  Meanwhile, US and Iraqi security forces both confirmed that wanted insurgent Abu Khalaf was killed in the restive area of Mosul.

Analysis in Brief:

Palestinian reconciliation?
On Monday, analysts groaned that Hamas and Fatah were no closer to reconciling their nearly 3-year territorial split amid the expiration of the term of the Palestinian parliament.  Then on Thursday, Hamas suggested it was interested in resuming talks via Egyptian moderators in Cairo.  Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak that it was willing to begin low-level talks with the Palestinian Authority.  If this small goodwill translates into something larger then we could be in another round of Mideast negotiations.

Belarus buys in and Moscow Enhances Its Sphere of Influence
Following all the hype last week with pro-Russian v. pro-Russian runoff in Ukraine’s elections, another former Soviet republic, Belarus, made news this week.  Minsk and Moscow reached a deal after a month of back-and-forth proposals concerning oil deliveries.  The agreement states that Belarus’ tariffs for oil will only increase by 11 percent.  It allows Europe to make a sigh of relief… until next year.  Clearly, a solution for energy security for Europe is far off so long as nations like Belarus and Ukraine base large portions of national revenue on transit fees for natural resources.

Shaky Status-Quo in Southern Lebanon
Following a Lebanese Parliamentary resolution allowing Hezbollah to keep its arms as long as Israel poses a threat to Lebanese sovereignty and growing worry that Hezbollah is rearming, Israeli leaders have said that the entire Lebanese state, not just Hezbollah, will be the target of Israeli aggression should the border situation escalate.  And more recently, Lebanese leaders have claimed to have obtained French guarantees to support Lebanese infrastructure in case of an Israeli attack.  Despite this saber rattling on both sides, heads of the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) remain optimistic that conflict will not break out again, though they say both sides could do more to promote peace.

First Peacetime Sri Lankan Elections
Incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa is re-elected President with 58% of the vote against 40% for opposition leader General Sarath Fonseka.  Fonseka says he is contesting the results and security forces surrounded his hotel, but this drama will subside with time.  Both Fonseka. as former head of the Army, and Rajapaksa are credited with ending the 26 year civil war the Tamil Tigers.  The political allies then suffered a split over who should receive credit for the victory.  The winner is now tasked with actually rehabilitating and maintaining a peaceful country, a harder task than merely winning the election.

This Foreign Affairs Roundup can be read on the Simple Intelligence Site or the Huffington Post World Page every Friday.

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By Victoria
January 29, 2010

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Foreign Affairs Roundup - January 22, 2010

This Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs:

Nigerian Violence and Leadership Crisis
Army and police roadblocks were deployed throughout northern Nigeria to curb the spread of sectarian violence from the region of Jos where as many as 400 people have been killed in fighting between Christians and Muslims.  This is the latest in a series of violence episodes over the past decade.  Underlying these tensions is longstanding poverty, poor security (including a low intensity insurgency in the oil-rich South) and ineffectual governance, making Nigeria’s current leadership crisis seem ever more acute:  The calls for President Umaru Yar’Adua to step down — following his long absence from Nigeria due to serious illness — are gaining momentum and support for Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to assume power continues to grow.

When Google Became a Foreign Policy Issue
Google announced last week that following repeated attempts in China to hack its servers and break into gmail accounts, that it is no longer complying with Chinese censorship guidelines and considering withdrawing from China.  The US expressed support for openness on the Internet and made calls on China to investigate the breaches.  China then responded coldly saying essentially that it is very displeased with the public nature of this dispute and that it will handle the issue as it sees fit.  The Google debate has now become a proxy for a whole host of underlying issues between China and the US including limits of freedom of expression, support for the Human Rights movement in China, freedom of access to the Internet, censorship, international involvement in domestic affairs, free competition of foreign companies within China, etc…

War Reports:

Iraq
US and Iraqi authorities are struggling to quell outrage and accusations of unfair election tampering after the Accountability and Justice Commission (originally created to oversee de-Baathization in the Iraqi government) disqualified over 511 candidates from standing in the 7 March Parliamentary elections.  Sunnis and rivals of PM Nuri al-Maliki say that the disqualifications are politically motivated and many fear that they will stoke Shia-Sunni tensions and possibly spark violence.

Afghanistan/Pakistan
The Taliban launched a coordinated and bold attack on Kabul.  However, Afghan security forces were able to effectively thwart the main momentum of the attack and ward off major damage.  Analyst debate whether this show of force from the Taliban would detract from the political campaign to woo low level insurgents away from the Taliban.  Meanwhile, some of President Hamid Karzai’s nominations for his Cabinet were rebuffed by Parliament for a second time.  Corruption and inexperience were the most often cited objections to the nominees.  Corruption is on everyone’s mind after a survey conducted by the UN’s Office on Drugs and Crime found that 50% of respondents had paid bribe in the previous year.  Afghans in general are more concerned about corruption than insecurity, the opium trade or unemployment.   Elsewhere, Karzai and international leaders prepare for an international donor’s conference in London to raise money for Afghanistan.
The political crisis in Pakistan appeared to deepen when the Supreme Court confirmed a repeal of immunity of current President Zardari for corruption and made formal requests to repatriate his fortune from Switzerland.

Under the Radar:

A Turn Towards Moscow Regardless
Orange Revolution and Western ally Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko did not garner enough votes to stand in the Presidential Runoff election. Rather Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, both discernably more open to Russian influence than Yushchenko (who was poisoned by unidentified assailants on the occasion of his last run for President), will face each other in the runoff.

Chile’s Return to the Right
Entrepreneur and economist Sebastián Piñera is elected President of Chile, the first right-wing victor in 20 years.  He defeated the long-ruling leftist party Concertación’s Eduardo Frei.  Pundits are quick to note that though Piñera’s party is often associated with Pinochet’s dictatorship, his political ambitions are centrist and democratic; moreover, his victory as seen as Chile’s repudiation of a tired and ineffectual Concertación.

New Leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood
Muhammad Badeea is named the eighth “supreme guide” of the Muslim Brotherhood.  Badeea’s tempered and soft-spoken demeanor makes him an odd choice, suggesting perhaps that the Brotherhood intends to keep a low profile presently both in Egypt and internationally.

Honduras Update
The incoming government proposed a deal to ousted President Zelaya that would allow him safe passage out of the country and drawdown the months-standing political crisis.

Blow to Al Qaeda in Turkey
In a country-wide raid, Turkey says it has apprehended at least 120 members of Al-Qaeda operating in the country there.

Reported Victories in Yemeni Crackdown on Insurgents and Rebels
Yemeni authorities say that they have apprehended the number two of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Said Ali al-Shihri after his botched attempt to bypass a security checkpoint.  Al-Shihri was released to Saudi Arabia from Guantanamo in 2007 before relocating to Yemen.  Elsewhere, Yemen authorities say that Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the leader of the Houthis rebels in the North was been killed following a government attack.

This Roundup can be read on the Simple Intelligence Site and on the Huffington Post World Page.



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By Victoria
January 22, 2010

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Foreign Affairs Roundup — Friday, January 8, 2010

This Week’s Top Stories on Foreign Affairs:

The State of Yemen
SI Analysis:  In light of recent international scrutiny following the thwarted Christmas bomb attempt on the Detroit-bound Northwest flight, every one — from the US, UK and Saudi governments to the Yemeni security forces — is scrambling to crack down on radical political Islamists operating in Yemen, including members of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).  However, the situation as many are discovering is far more challenging than it may first appear.  There are two ongoing rebellions in Yemen, the Shia al-Houthis in the north and Sunni tribes in the South.  There is also a disperate Sunni insurgency aimed at toppling both the Saana government and the Saudi Royal family.  This movement was greatly strengthened after a 2006 prison break where key movement leaders escaped.  What’s worse is that Yemen’s President Saleh has often used radical Salafi mercenaries and leaders to fight the Shia rebellion in the north.  And there is strong evidence that up to this point, certain security forces and political factions have left AQAP leaders alone to do their bidding safely within the country.  As Yemen gains international attention, it will become a site for international recruitment just as Somalia, Afghanistan and Pakistan.  How best to address the problems that Yemen has no simple or fast fix.

How to Address the Iranian Nuclear Program
SI Analysis: The world seemed upside down this week when Iran issued an ultimatum to the West saying that the foreign powers have one week to accept the proposal to export its enriched uranium on its own terms, or it will unequivocally continue to enrich uranium regardless of world opinion.  The permanent members of the UN Security Council (UK, US, France, Russia and China) plus Germany will likely impose more difficult financial sanctions on Iran to coerce into operation.  Some suggest that sanctions coupled with the fledgling opposition movement, will weaken the Ahmadinejad government and the Khamenei Regime and its nuclear policy.  However, this is to misunderstand the opposition movement who has no issue with Iranian nuclear policy.  The reality is that Iran continues to enrich uranium with relative impunity, it is building even more nuclear infrastructure deep in its mountains and it is aggressively pursuing engagement of Central Asian powers with enticing energy deals to ensure its long term independence from the West.  There still remains the possibility that Israel may strike Iran preemptively to slow the progression of its nuclear program.

War Stories:

Iraq
The big story is that Iran is preparing for its elections on 7 March, where large turnover in elected officials is expected.  Whether factional divides will endure or cross-ethnic and inter-faith alliances will prevail is the most pressing and interesting question as it dictates whether Iraq is moving towards a unified or divided future.  In any case, many expect radical political Islamists to attempt to thwart the elections with targeted bombings.

Afghanistan and Pakistan
Retaliatory strikes from the Pakistani Taliban — including a deadly blast in a village on the border with South Waziristan that killed over 89 people and pointed attacks against Pakistani Shias — continue in Pakistan, despite the fact that the government claims to have made great gains in its offensives against the group and the US claims its drones killed key leadership over the holidays.  Meanwhile, Karzai struggles to form a government that will gain the respect both domestically and internationally.  More focus is turned to the tough task of building up the Afghan national security forces as well as the ongoing need for international aid.

Analysis in Brief will be posted later in the day.

You can read this roundup on the Simple Intelligence Site and on the Huffington Post World Page.

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By Victoria
January 22, 2010

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Foreign Affairs Roundup - Friday, January 15

This Week’s Top Stories in Foreign Affairs:

Haiti’s Devastation
SI Anlysis: A 7.0 earthquake struck Haiti and tens of thousands are feared dead.  Countries and aid organizations rushed to provide emergency relief.  The UN peacekeeping mission there suffered horrible blows: 16 peacekeepers were confirmed dead, wheras 100 UN employees remain missing.  Haiti is already critically poor and just barely emerging from a period of political chaos that brought great instability and violence to the small Carribean country.  The repercussions of this quake will be felt for years to come.

China This Week
SI Analysis: China’s massive economic weight and rise in exports led headlines at the beginning of the week; while the headliner towards week’s end was Google’s threat to withdraw all of its operations from the nation.  (The multinational Internet giant cited Beijing’s assaults on its computer systems from hackers in addition to the over-zealous government censorship policy.  This accusation was followed by reports that similar cyberattacks have target defense companies with sensitive US technology).  Behind these headlines was the fact that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was in Asia trying to proffer a more cooperative, but deeply Sino-conscious American foreign policy there.  It was no surprise then that China announced this week that it is the first nation to follow the US with a successfully test of its own missile defense system.  This show of force, uncharacteristically announced by Xinhua, will be of increasing concern to the Pentagon and other global players as the months progress.  And the US’ recent sale of Patriot missile-defence systems to Taiwan is certainly a factor here.  In other piece of intriguing (and positive) news is that China rushed to the aid of quake-stricken Haiti, proving that it is day’s of isolation and inward-focused policy is over and Beijing is serious about making itself an integral part of international rescue efforts.

Israel Under Pressure
SI Analysis: A diplomatic spat over the portrayal of Israelis in a Turkish television show and how Israeli officers from the Foreign Ministry treated the Turkish Ambassador has underscored the deep tension between the regional allies.  This crisis comes just before Defense Minister Ehud Barak is headed to Turkey to try to repair relations, that have greatly degraded since the 2008 Gaza War.  Some see the events as a direct effort from the far-right Foreign Minister Avigdor Leiberman to thwart the talks.  Israel faced further pressure from US Special Envoy George Mitchell who intimated in a recent interview that the US could withdraw loan guarantees from Israel is if it did not halt settlement building.  Furthermore, there has been an increase in rocket and mortar attacks from Gaza in recent weeks, prompting Israel to contemplate a possible violent retalitory response.

War Reports:

Afghanistan/Pakistan
SI Analysis: Afghan President Hamid Karzai made his second proposal to Parliament in an effort to form a Cabinet this month; the amount of unknowns prompted criticism and it was unclear whether they would approve his proposal.  The traditional winter slowdown in fighting in Afghanistan has not occured this year due to persistent Taliban attacks in Southern Afghanistan, an persistent pressure and attacks made possible by the increased number of US troops and the increased focus on the border with Pakistan with ongoing drone attacks.   However this continued cadence seemed threatened by the slower than expected rollout of the increase in American troops.  In Helmand Province, the opium trade is reportedly down helped by anti-narcotic efforts, a demand for wheat in neighboring Pakistan and depressed opium prices.  Meanwhile, the repercussions of the Jordanian doctor double agent who killed 6 CIA officers in Khost last week are still being weighed by all parties in Afghanistan — Al Qaeda claims to have masterminded the attack, though others suggest that the attack was made in retalliation for the death of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud,  the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency publicaly proposes new methods to increase the efficacy of inteligence collection and analysis in Afghanistan,

Iraq
SI Analysis: All eyes are focused on the upcoming March 7 parliamentary elections, with great scrutiny being paid to whether the great gamble of the Iraqi National Alliance — which has sought to create parties across sectarian and religious divides — will pay off.  Furthermore, there are rumors that the US and the Iraqis are courting former Bathists set up in Yemen now to quell the ongoing Sunni insurgency ahead of elections (and to bolster a more effective effort against al Qaeda within Yemen).

Analysis in Brief:

Iranian Nuclear Conspiracy Thriller
SI Analysis: This week another curious event occurred in Tehran.  Massoud Ali-Mohammadi, a prominent Iranian physicist and professor at Tehran University, was killed in a bomb blast outside his home.  Ali-Mohammadi was allegedly involved in Iran’s nuclear program and his death has led to all sorts of conspiracy theories.  Was it secret forces from America or Israel that killed him?  Or did Iranian forces off him? (After all, Iranian media was extremely quick to cover the event and condemn “Zionists”.)  Opposition figures at home were quick to note that Ali-Mohammadi was a fervent supporter of Mousavi and may have sufferefd the recent fate of many opposition supporters.

Nigerian Strife
SI Analysis: A leadership crisis in Nigeria was exacerbated rather than tempered when Umaru Yar’Adua, Nigeria’s president, made a radio address vowing his return after 7 weeks on silence following his emergency hospitalization in Saudi Arabia.  Without effective leadership, many are calling for Yar’Adua to officially transfer power to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan.

Ireland: A Cautionary Tale for Peacemakers

SI Analysis: The last phase of Northern Ireland’s peace accord seemed in great peril.  The difficult task that would see the transfer of security responsability from London to Stormont is threatened not to uppity insurgents but mainly to stupid sex scandals (on both sides!).

Presidential Elections:

  • This week Croatia elected a new President, Ivo Josipovic, a law professor and composer, and also a moderate.  He is expected to bridge some of the divides in this Balkan nation and analysts hail him as good for the entire region’s progress.
  • An impending presidential election in Ukraine leaves many predicting the comeback of Viktor Yanukovitch who was ousted in 2004 by the pro-Western “Orange Revolution”.  Ukraine’s EU-friendly government, led by rivals President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoschenko has proved a disappointment to many and Ukraine has been stuck in many tumultuous disputes between Russia and the West, especially over Russian gas.  Yanukovitch leads in the polls and his victory would be a boon to the Kremlin and Russian influence.
  • The second round of the Chile presidential election takes place pitting rightwing candidate Sebastián Piñera (who won 40% in the first round last month) against leftwinger Eduardo Frei,  (who took 35%).  Many analysts predict the right is poised to win.

You can read this Foreign Affairs Roundup on the Simple Intelligence Site or on the Huffington Post World Page.

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By admin
January 15, 2010

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